Market Assessment Tools
Substantial markets can be revealed by a number of estimation techniques. One very powerful approach is the use of scenarios. Scenarios comprise a forecasting technique that requires managers to write explicit anticipated futures and articulate the chains of events that would need to occur to make the future happen. For example, Royal Dutch Shell tuned its supply strategy when its scenario process in 1973 found no compelling reasons for Arab states to increase their crude oil production. Furthermore, some of the authors helped an environmental management company determine the market for certain types of training. The task involved getting accurate counts of employees in different industries who handled hazardous and toxic materials, plus an assessment of the likelihood of new government regulations that—by fiat or new economic sanctions— would impact the training demand.
A related approach involves hard thinking and analysis of how the product fits into the value-added process. This approach is sometimes called the buildup approach or factoring. Market estimates by this approach come from building up the materials or parts units needed in a specific application or from specific accounts. For example, potential demand for a surgical staple designed for closing Caesarian sections can be estimated from a count of the average number of staples needed to close a typical Csection, times the number of C-sections performed in different countries. Projections in each country are apt to show different trends, based on differences in hospital protocols, fertility patterns, and population distributions.
The same basic approach can be applied using survey responses from prospects or from members of the sales force. Likewise, the volume of certain materials, logistical services, or MRO (maintenance, repair and operating) goods can be compared to finished products output in a statistical series. A statistical series is an estimation technique that uses the correlation between demand and some other set of economic activities to yield a forecast.